bug: Problem with São Paulo - SP in 2024

[eduardocorrearaujo]

Here, we define the maximum cumulative cases as 5e5. However, in São Paulo - SP in 2024, we had more than 1e6 cases. So, I was wondering whether we should create an exception just for this city or increase the upper threshold for all cities. What do you think, @fccoelho?

[fccoelho]

I think the best we can do is to set this maximum value from the data (plus 5%) we are fitting, because we are fitting retrospectively, so we already know the value.

[eduardocorrearaujo]

I think that it would work for the past years, but I think that would decrease the performance of the fitting in the current year

[fccoelho]

The fit for the current year is only accurate after a certain week. Since we re-run the fit every week, we can set the max range for the optimizer to the maximum in the data + 20%, and it will improve the fit gradually until perfect at the end of the year.

For the current year, we should also add the interactive fit plot that we talked about, so that users can explore.