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covid_geo_exclusions.csv
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forecast_date,forecaster,geo_value,weight
##################
# defaults
##################
2024-10-01, all, mp, 0
2024-10-01, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2024-10-01, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2024-10-01, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2024-10-01, linear, all, 3
2024-10-01, linearlog, all, 0
2024-10-01, climate_base, all, 2
2024-10-01, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2024-10-01, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# April 23rd
##################
2025-04-23, all, mp, 0
2025-04-23, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-04-23, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-04-23, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-04-23, linear, all, 3
2025-04-23, linearlog, all, 0
2025-04-23, climate_base, all, 2
2025-04-23, climate_geo_agged, all, 0
2025-04-23, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# April 9
##################
2025-04-02, all, mp, 0
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-04-02, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-04-02, linear, all, 3
2025-04-02, linearlog, all, 0
2025-04-02, climate_base, all, 2
2025-04-02, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-04-02, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# April 2
##################
2025-04-02, all, mp, 0
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-04-02, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-04-02, linear, all, 3
2025-04-02, linearlog, all, 0
2025-04-02, climate_base, all, 2
2025-04-02, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-04-02, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
# Make ar_only the most important for dc
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal, dc, 5
2025-04-02, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, dc, 5
##################
# March 26
##################
2025-03-26, all, mp, 0
2025-03-26, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-03-26, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-03-26, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-03-26, linear, all, 3
2025-03-26, linearlog, all, 0
2025-03-26, climate_base, all, 2
2025-03-26, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-03-26, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
2025-03-26, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
2025-03-26, climate_linear, al, 10
2025-03-26, windowed_seasonal, al, 3
# make climate_linear 5x as important as windowed_seasonal for us
2025-03-26, climate_linear, us, 0.0005
##################
# March 19
##################
2025-03-19, all, mp, 0
2025-03-19, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-03-19, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-03-19, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-03-19, linear, all, 3
2025-03-19, linearlog, all, 0
2025-03-19, climate_base, all, 2
2025-03-19, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-03-19, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# March 12th
##################
2025-03-12, all, mp, 0
2025-03-12, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-03-12, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-03-12, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-03-12, linear, all, 3
2025-03-12, linearlog, all, 0
2025-03-12, climate_base, all, 2
2025-03-12, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-03-12, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
2025-03-12, windowed_seasonal, ms, 5
2025-03-12, windowed_seasonal, us, 0.00005
##################
# March 5th
##################
2025-03-05, all, mp, 0
2025-03-05, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-03-05, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-03-05, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-03-05, linear, all, 3
2025-03-05, linearlog, all, 0
2025-03-05, climate_base, all, 2
2025-03-05, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-03-05, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# Feb 26
##################
2025-02-26, all, mp, 0
2025-02-26, windowed_seasonal, all, 0.0001
2025-02-26, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-02-26, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-02-26, linear, all, 3
2025-02-26, linearlog, all, 0
2025-02-26, climate_base, all, 2
2025-02-26, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-02-26, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# feb 19
##################
2025-02-19, all, mp, 0
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
# this is weighing the linear climate ensemble
2025-02-19, climate_linear, all, 0.0001
2025-02-19, climate_linear, ma, 3
2025-02-19, climate_linear, nh, 3
2025-02-19, climate_linear, nm, 3
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal, pr, 3
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal, mo, 3
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal, wy, 3
2025-02-19, windowed_seasonal, usa, 3
# creating linear climate
2025-02-19, linear, all, 3
2025-02-19, linearlog, all, 0
2025-02-19, climate_base, all, 2
2025-02-19, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-02-19, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# feb 12
##################
2025-02-05, all, mp, 0
2025-02-05, windowed_seasonal, all, 3
2025-02-05, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0.0
2025-02-05, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-02-05, linear, all, 0.5
2025-02-05, linearlog, all, 0
2025-02-05, climate_base, all, 0
2025-02-05, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.0
##################
# feb 5
##################
2025-02-05, all, mp, 0
2025-02-05, windowed_seasonal, all, 3
2025-02-05, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-02-05, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-02-05, linear, all, 0.5
2025-02-05, linearlog, all, 0
2025-02-05, climate_base, all, 0
2025-02-05, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.0
##################
# Jan 29
##################
2025-01-29, all, mp, 0
2025-01-29, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-01-29, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-01-29, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-01-29, linear, all, 3
2025-01-29, linearlog, all, 0
2025-01-29, climate_base, all, 2
2025-01-29, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-01-29, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# Jan 22
##################
2025-01-22, all, mp, 0
2025-01-22, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-01-22, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 3
2025-01-22, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-01-22, linear, all, 3
2025-01-22, linearlog, all, 0
2025-01-22, climate_base, all, 2
2025-01-22, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-01-22, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# jan 15
##################
2025-01-15, all, mp, 0
2025-01-15, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-01-15, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2025-01-15, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-01-15, linear, all, 3
2025-01-15, linearlog, all, 0
2025-01-15, climate_base, all, 2
2025-01-15, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-01-15, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# jan 8
##################
2025-01-08, all, mp, 0
2025-01-08, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-01-08, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2025-01-08, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-01-08, linear, all, 3
2025-01-08, linearlog, all, 0
2025-01-08, climate_base, all, 2
2025-01-08, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-01-08, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# jan 1
##################
2025-01-01, all, mp, 0
2025-01-01, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2025-01-01, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2025-01-01, climate_linear, all, 3
2025-01-01, linear, all, 3
2025-01-01, linearlog, all, 0
2025-01-01, climate_base, all, 2
2025-01-01, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2025-01-01, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# dec 25
##################
2024-12-25, all, mp, 0
2024-12-25, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2024-12-25, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2024-12-25, climate_linear, all, 3
2024-12-25, linear, all, 3
2024-12-25, linearlog, all, 0
2024-12-25, climate_base, all, 2
2024-12-25, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2024-12-25, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# dec 11
##################
2024-12-11, all, mp, 0
2024-12-11, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2024-12-11, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2024-12-11, climate_linear, all, 3
2024-12-11, linear, all, 3
2024-12-11, linearlog, all, 0
2024-12-11, climate_base, all, 2
2024-12-11, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2024-12-11, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# dec 4th
##################
2024-12-04, all, mp, 0
2024-12-04, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2024-12-04, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2024-12-04, climate_linear, all, 3
2024-12-04, linear, all, 3
2024-12-04, linearlog, all, 0
2024-12-04, climate_base, all, 2
2024-12-04, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2024-12-04, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
##################
# nov 27th
##################
2024-11-27, all, mp, 0
2024-11-27, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2024-11-27, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2024-11-27, climate_linear, all, 3
2024-11-27, linear, all, 3
2024-11-27, linearlog, all, 0
2024-11-27, climate_base, all, 2
2024-11-27, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
2024-11-27, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
2024-11-27, climate_base, fl, 1
2024-11-27, climate_base, de, 0.5
2024-11-27, climate_base, mi, 0.5
2024-11-27, linear, az, 0
2024-11-27, linear, ma, 0
################################################
# minor blip, the uploaded data was wildly wrong
# this does mean the forecasts will probably be more accurate
################################################
2024-11-20, all, mp, 0
2024-11-20, windowed_seasonal, all, 0
2024-11-20, windowed_seasonal_extra_sources, all, 0
2024-11-20, climate_linear, all, 3
2024-11-20, linear, all, 9
2024-11-20, linearlog, all, 0
2024-11-20, climate_base, all, 2
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, all, 1
2024-11-20, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0
# 2024-11-21, climate_quantile_extrapolated, ca, 0
# 2024-11-21, climate_geo_agged, ca, 0
# co needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, co, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, co, 0.5
# de needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, de, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, de, 0.5
# ga needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, ga, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, ga, 0.5
# hi needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, hi, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, hi, 0.5
# ia needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, ia, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, ia, 0.5
# md needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, md, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, md, 0.5
# mi needs a stronger climate part
2024-11-20, linear, mi, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_base, mi, 0.5
# nd needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, nd, 0.25
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, nd, 0.25
# ne needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, ne, 0.25
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, ne, 0.25
# nj needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, nj, 0.25
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, nj, 0.25
# or needs a stronger linear part
2024-11-20, climate_base, or, 0.5
2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, or, 0.5
# pa needs a weaker linear part (data is *very* steep)
2024-11-20, linear, pa, 0.5
################################################
#first forecast
################################################
# 2024-11-20, linear, all, 2
# 2024-11-20, linearlog, all, 0
# 2024-11-20, climate_base, all, 2
# 2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, all, 0.5
# 2024-11-20, climate_quantile_extrapolated, all, 0.5
# 2024-11-20, linear, az, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, mi, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, ma, 0
# 2024-11-20, climate_geo_agged, ma, 0
# 2024-11-20, climate_quantile_extrapolated, ma, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, mn, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, mt, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, nm, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, pa, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, vt, 0
# 2024-11-20, linear, wy, 0