- Numerical weather predition and climate models rely on complex interconnected models which solve for the present and future atmospheric and oceanic states. Despite the many decades of work improving these models, monsoons remain largely unpredictable compared to other disaster relevent events like hurricanes. Considering the significance seasonal monsoons have on people's livelihoods and agriculture production, further studying the monsoon is of upmost importance. An observed phenonema that could shed some light on complex monsoon dynamics include the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO). Weather data and satellite imagery highilght a wave like propogation pattern measurable in the Indian subcontinent which follows the active-break cycle throughout the monsoon season. However, the cause of these atmospheric waves are not fully understood but are hypthesized to result from interactions of Rossby and Kelvin waves. Other influences on these wave dynamics likely originate from complex mountainous orography and air-sea interactions. A goal of my research is to recreate this MISO phenomena in cutting edge atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) computational models. Then, with the use of these models, we could more accurately pinpoint the factors contributing to monsoon variability, perhaps paving the way for relaible seasonal forecasts of monsoon precipitation and thus allowing improved response pathways for policy makers and governments.
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