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# El Niño 2023-2024: rising sea surface temperatures (SST)
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The strength and frequency of La Niña and El Niño were once determined entirely by natural factors, but now the climate patterns are evidencing the contribution of human actions. A [new study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8 ) set out to determine the impact of greenhouse gases emissions on the major climate driver ENSO, suggesting that climate change is making La Niña and El Niño [more frequent and more extreme](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06236-9 ). Around 40 to 50 million people are currently [affected in 16 countries](https://wmo.int/media/news/un-el-nino-debate-emphasizes-need-integrated-action ), in particular in the regions of eastern and southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Asia-Pacific region. Severe drought and associated food security, flooding, heavy rains, and high temperatures caused by [El Niño caused a wide range of health problems](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Our_oceans_are_in_hot_water ), including disease outbreaks, malnutrition and heat stress.
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# El Niño impacts: Rising Global Sea Surface Temperatures
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In the past, natural factors were the primary drivers of El Niño and La Niña cycles. However, human activity, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases, is now influencing these climate patterns. Recent studies [1] suggest that climate change is making both El Niño and La Niña more frequent and more intense [2]. These shifts are already having widespread consequences, affecting an estimated 40 to 50 million people across 16 countries [3], especially in regions like eastern and southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Asia-Pacific.
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El Niño brings extreme weather conditions such as severe droughts, heavy rains, flooding, and high temperatures. These events contribute to food insecurity, disease outbreaks, malnutrition, and heat-related illnesses, highlighting the profound impact climate patterns have on human health and well-being [4].
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## Europe and Asia’s Marine Heatwave
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The unprecedented sea surface temperatures have been associated with marine heatwaves: periods of unusual high ocean temperatures. These can have significant and sometimes devastating impacts on ocean ecosystems, and biodiversity, potentially leading to socio-economic impacts due to their impact on industry such as fisheries, tourism or aquaculture. Sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves affected various regions in the summer of 2023, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service during June-July-August.
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The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean basin were particularly impacted by these heatwaves, leading to [significant sea surface temperature anomalies](https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/2023-northern-hemisphere-summer-record-breaking-oceanic-events) and severe marine heatwaves .
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Of special concerning was the Atlantic Ocean near Ireland and the United Kingdom, where extreme marine heatwave occur in June 2023, with sea temperatures up to 5 °C [above average](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high) . For the entire year, the average sea surface temperature across European waters was the highest on record, with parts of the Mediterranean Sea and northeastern Atlantic seeing their warmest annual averages [ever recorded](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high).
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Understanding these changes is crucial for preparing and responding to climate impacts, and this is where Earth observation plays a pivotal role. Satellites and other remote sensing tools provided by space agencies such as JAXA, ESA and NASA provide continuous monitoring of the planet, offering scientists real-time data on sea surface temperatures (SST), weather patterns, and environmental changes. By analysing this data, researchers can detect early signs of El Niño or La Niña and predict their potential impacts, improving disaster preparedness and response efforts. Earth observation systems have become an indispensable tool in climate science, helping us better understand and mitigate the effects of a warming planet.
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## Europe's Marine Heatwave
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Marine heatwaves, characterised by unusually high ocean temperatures, are another pressing concern. These events can severely disrupt marine ecosystems, endangering biodiversity and affecting industries like fisheries, tourism, and aquaculture. In the summer of 2023, regions across Europe and Asia experienced significant marine heatwaves, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean were hit particularly hard, leading to extreme sea surface temperature anomalies [5].
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The situation was especially alarming in the waters around Ireland and the United Kingdom, where sea temperatures soared to 5°C above average in June 2023. Across European waters, 2023 recorded the highest average sea surface temperatures ever documented, with parts of the Mediterranean Sea and northeastern Atlantic reaching unprecedented levels [6].
This map illustrates the **Ocean Heat Content (OHC300)** for June 2023. This variable, provided by ECMWF, measures the amount of heat stored in the upper 300 meters of the ocean, providing important insights into global warming. This data, from the ORAS5 system, combines models and global observations to offer a detailed view of ocean temperatures from 1958 to today.
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Regarding this year, in January 2024 global sea surface temperature [was the highest on record ](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825)for this month . As of late April 2024, positive sea surface temperature anomalies have weakened across most of the Pacific, with below-average temperatures emerging in the far eastern Pacific, [indicating a potential transition to ENSO-neutral conditions](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). Model forecasts suggest a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral likely to happening in the coming months, with a 60% chance of La Nina developing by June-August 2024 [as the El Niño dissipates](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf).
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[**Explore this dataset on EO Dashboard**](https://eodashboard.org/explore?indicator=OHC300&x=0&y=1963285.60891&z=2.49185)
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## High SSTs in Japan
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Figure below shows a map of SST anomalies for July 2023. Overall, SSTs tend to be higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where they are more than 5°C higher than normal. The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures. In a recent report of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), it was pointed out that this high SST may have been one of the factors that brought record high temperatures to northern Japan this summer.
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By January 2024, global sea surface temperatures set new records for the month, reflecting the ongoing warming trend [7]. As of late April 2024, Pacific temperatures began to show signs of cooling, indicating a potential transition to neutral conditions after the recent El Niño.
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The latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts indicate a 60% chance of transitioning from the current neutral conditions to La Niña conditions emerging towards the end of this year, bringing yet another shift in global weather patterns [8].
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## SST in Japan
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Since 2023, sea surface temperatures in the North-West Pacific, especially off the east coast of Japan, have shown significant increases. Recent studies of atmospheric and ocean conditions revealed that this rise in sea temperatures, both at the surface and below, likely contributed to the record-breaking heatwave in northern Japan during the summer of 2023 [9]. In particular, the east coast of Japan experienced much warmer waters as the cool Oyashio current was replaced by warmer water, due to an unusual northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension that began in spring 2023.
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## The Coasts of Tohoku and Hokkaido <!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" }-->
Overall, SSTs tend to be higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where they are more than 5°C higher than normal.
The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures.
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The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures.
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Now, let's focus on the waters around Japan. In July 2023, sea surface temperatures (SST) were generally higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where temperatures were more than 5°C above average. The map illustrates the Sea Surface Temperature from JAXA's GCOM-W around Japan on August 10, 2024. [**View more dates**](https://eodashboard.org/explore?indicator=ENSST&x=15431081.54924&y=4747312.96961&z=7.14583).
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The Kuroshio Extension, which usually flows eastward from Joban-oki, shifted northward to Sanriku-oki, bringing much warmer waters. According to a report from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), these high sea temperatures likely contributed to the record heat experienced in northern Japan this summer.
The anomalies in the seas around Japan vary between -1°C and +1°C. In recent years, August 2022 and July 2023 were particularly warm.
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In addition to global warming, SSTs in the ocean around Japan are changing under the influence of complex variations in the ocean current system, which has a significant impact on Japan’s weather, climate, and fisheries. To meet the demand for monitoring and forecasting such oceanic changes, JAXA, in cooperation with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, operates the “Ocean Weather Forecast” for the area around Japan, providing forecast results of water temperature and current speed up to about two weeks ahead. The Ocean Weather Forecast uses SST data from the AMSR series to improve forecast accuracy. Figure below shows the monthly mean SST anomalies in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E), which shows the long-term trends of variations, excluding seasonal cycles.
A closer look at monthly SST anomalies in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E) shows long-term temperature trends, excluding seasonal variations. SST anomalies in this region usually range between -1°C and +1°C, but August 2022 and July 2023 were notably warm.
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Besides global warming, SSTs around Japan are affected by complex shifts in the ocean current system, which strongly influences the country’s weather, climate, and fisheries. To help monitor and forecast these changes, JAXA, in collaboration with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, operates the “Ocean Weather Forecast” for the area around Japan. This system provides forecasts for water temperatures and currents up to two weeks in advance, using SST data from the AMSR series to improve accuracy.
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The figure below shows the monthly mean SST anomalies in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E), which shows the long-term trends of variations, excluding seasonal cycles.
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## Open Science
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<p>Here are some key types of variables and datasets from Earth observation satellite missions that can be used to track El Niño and La Niña events, with special attention to ocean-related surface temperatures. This summary focuses on missions from ESA, NASA, and JAXA:</p>
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## Datasets
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Here are some key types of variables and datasets from Earth observation satellite missions that can be used to track El Niño and La Niña events, with special attention to ocean-related surface temperatures. This summary focuses on missions from ESA, NASA, and JAXA:
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<ul>
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<li><strong><a href="https://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Data/DataOverview/SeaSurfaceTemperature/index.html">Sea Surface Temperature (SST)</a></strong> from satellites like:
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### References
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1. Cai, W., Ng, B., Geng, T. et al. Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 407–418 (2023). [doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8#citeas)
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2. Geng, T., Jia, F., Cai, W. et al. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming. Nature 619, 774–781 (2023).[doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06236-9#citeas)
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3. UN El Niño debate emphasizes need for integrated action [World Meterological Organization](https://wmo.int/media/news/un-el-nino-debate-emphasizes-need-integrated-action)
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4. Our oceans are in hot water [ESA](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Our_oceans_are_in_hot_water)
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5. The 2023 Northern Hemisphere Summer Marks Record-Breaking Oceanic Events [Copernicus Marine Service](https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/2023-northern-hemisphere-summer-record-breaking-oceanic-events)
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6. Global sea surface temperature reaches a record high [Copernicus Climate Change Service](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high)
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7. At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record [Down To Earth](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825)
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8. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions [NOOA](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)
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8. WMO Update predicts 60% chance of La Niña [WMO 2024](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-update-predicts-60-chance-of-la-nina)
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9. Sato, H., Takemura, K., Ito, A. et al. Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023. Sci Rep 14, 16100 (2024). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y)
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