Peak Oil prediction dates

[pukpr]

At the Peak Oil Barrel blog, there was a question on how accurate peak oil prediction dates were

https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-falls/#comment-781815

In Mathematical Geoenergy (Wiley/AGU), we had published the following for conventional crude oil yearly global production (screenshot from draft PDF).

The broad plateau extended to perhaps 2015. Prompting ChatGPT, it may be that a generally accepted date is now November 2018.

In the book, we also provided a more generous prediction, which expanded the sources of crude oil. As Dennis noted that the Total Discovery numbers were probably conventional oil only, the green dashed line (below) excludes extra heavy oil (produced in Canada and Venezuela) + LTO produced in the USA, matches well with the estimate in figure 9.13.

This set an upper limit at a value of 85 megabarrels/day global production at a later date of 2026-2028. The thinking is that the COVID-19 pandemic prevented any production spikes past 2018.

And with the current tariff policies set by the Trump administration, the reality is hitting home.