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Why Web4x?
The versioning of "Web" (and "Industry") paradigms ties back to the idea of Kondratiev cycles, which describe long-term economic waves driven by groundbreaking technological innovations. However, this context is often overlooked, leading to inconsistent explanations about what constitutes Industry 1.0 - 4.0 and Web 1.0 - 4.0.
Each major version shift is marked by a paradigm shift—a groundbreaking invention that transforms how something is done while the what remains the same. Let’s explore this through examples.
The transition from manual craftsmanship to steam-powered mechanics introduced the first assembly lines. This innovation transformed how goods were produced but didn’t change what was being made.
The assembly line became electrified, increasing efficiency and reducing reliance on steam-powered systems. Again, what was made remained the same, but how it was made evolved significantly.
Software began controlling assembly lines. Comprehensive programming models enabled every step to be precisely determined, though any undefined state could halt the system.
Assembly lines gained autonomy, leveraging robotics and artificial intelligence to self-optimize, solve problems, and improve performance without direct human intervention.
Each paradigm shift is driven by a specific, groundbreaking invention that forces change. Early adopters outperform their competitors, while late adopters face challenges. Crucially, the what (e.g., car manufacturing) stays constant, but the how and the required capabilities of workers change drastically.
The Capability Maturity Model (CMM) defines five levels of organizational maturity, each describing how a capability is performed. This framework aligns with the paradigm shifts seen in Industry and Web versions.
- Chaotic: Processes are ad hoc and unpredictable (trial-and-error phase).
- Repeatable: Basic processes are established, but outcomes vary significantly.
- Defined: Processes are standardized and consistent, ensuring predictable outcomes.
- Managed: Processes incorporate feedback loops to adapt and improve autonomously.
- Optimized: Processes reach their theoretical peak, often enforced by external regulations (e.g. FDA standards).
Each increase in CMM level represents a paradigm shift, requiring a fundamental change in how a capability is executed. While the what stays constant, altering the how transforms processes into a more effective and competitive system. For example:
- Moving from Defined (CMM 3) to Managed (CMM 4) involves establishing automated feedback loops that allow processes to self-improve. This shift demands mastery of an entirely new set of capabilities.
- However, reaching Optimized (CMM 5) is not typically a voluntary pursuit. The Pareto principle applies here: 80% of the desired outcome can often be achieved with just 20% of the effort, while the remaining 20% of improvement requires an exponential (factor 5) increase in effort. This inefficiency makes CMM Level 5 desirable only when enforced by external pressures, such as regulatory compliance or high-stakes scenarios (e.g., Formula 1 racing, space missions, or life-critical medical devices).
The lessons learned in the relentless pursuit of optimization at CMM Level 5 can provide valuable insights that cascade back to lower levels. These innovations often push the boundaries of what is possible, keeping organizations ahead of their competition. However, the immense costs and effort required make Level 5 more of an exception than a target.
Unfortunately, these principles, rooted in systems thinking and design thinking, remain underdeveloped in most educational curricula. By failing to treat them as foundational disciplines, humanity risks stagnation in its ability to adapt and innovate effectively.
Web 4.0 represents the application of CMM Level 4 principles to the web, enabling a self-optimizing, resilient, and adaptable ecosystem. It is the first deployment of a holistic architecture crafted to support enduring and adaptive evolution. Web 4.0 integrates these principles:
- Decentralization: True peer-to-peer interactions without intermediaries.
- Autonomy: Smart objects capable of managing themselves and adapting.
- Sustainability: Systems that can evolve and improve without requiring constant intervention.
Web 4.0 is not just an incremental evolution of Web 3.0 but a paradigm shift in how the web functions, ensuring humanity’s ability to thrive while mitigating existential risks.
The idea of Web 5.0 misunderstands the nature of CMM Level 4 systems. Once a system reaches Level 4, it is "managed," meaning it can adapt to changes and continuously improve within its established paradigm. Moving beyond this would require achieving CMM Level 5, which is Pareto-inefficient (massive costs for marginal gains).
Instead of dreaming of Web 5.0, the focus should be on refining and maximizing the potential of Web 4.0. This ensures innovation remains efficient, effective, and aligned with humanity’s needs.