During Covid I found this method on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiYGSuyGSNc. I got curious and I decided to test it, to evaluate if it is profitable in the long run.
I used the rand function to simulate a random draw.
You start with an initial bet with an 80% chance of winning:
- In case of a win, you continue with the same bet.
- In case of a loss, you place a 50% (winning prob) bet, where you bet the amount lost.
- In case of a win, you would have regained everything and restart with the 80% bets.
- In case of a loss, you continue with the 50% bet, always doubling the amount wagered.
- Bet $5 at 80% -> lose
- Bet $5 at 50% -> lose
- Bet $10 at 50% -> lose
- Bet $20 at 50% -> win -> I have won $40, which is 20 + 10 + 5 + 5, I have broken even!
- Bet $5 at 80% ..
Assuming my simulation is correct, you will always lose all your money!
Sooner or later you will encounter a losing streak at 50% bets that will lead you to spend all your money. For instance, after 20k bets you may lose 25 bets at 50% in a row.
Unfortunately I have to continue studying engineering 🤣