Allocation scoring rules for forecast evaluation

A place to collect work on forecast evaluation via allocation scoring rules and social utility in general.

Analysis set-up

The analysis here uses a pipeline-based workflow implemented with the targets package for R.

1. The analysis has been confirmed to work with R v4.2.3.
2. The analysis requires the following installations (specific version requirements not enforced at the moment, but perhaps at a future time will be saved using renv):

• from CRAN: targets, tarchetypes, tidyverse, gh, crew
• from GitHub: alloscore, distfromq, covidHubUtils (along with several dependencies; see https://github.com/reichlab/covidHubUtils).

Running Analysis

From an R console at the project root,

1. source("_targets.R")
2. tar_make() (this could take a while, e.g., ~20 minutes on an M2 Mac)

The objects required to knit ./alloscore_manuscript/manuscript.Rnw should now reside in _targets/objects (which is gitignored).